Eurozone inflation: ~2.8 % in June — ECB target: 2 %
| Pair | Rate | Avg since 2000 | Variance | Signal for buyer | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR / AED 🇦🇪 | 4.2837 | 4.33 | −1.1 % | ↑ Sl. Favourable | ✓✓ XE |
| EUR / USD 🇺🇸 | 1.1664 | 1.18 | −1.2 % | ↑ Sl. Favourable | ✓✓ ECB |
| EUR / GBP 🇬🇧 | 0.8555 | 0.75 | +14.1 % | ↓ Unfavourable | ✓✓ ECB |
| EUR / CHF 🇨🇭 | 0.9362 | 1.25 | −25.1 % | ↑↑ Very Favourable | ✓✓ ECB |
| EUR / PLN 🇵🇱 | 4.3078 | 4.12 | +4.6 % | → Sl. Unfavourable | ✓✓ ECB |
| EUR / SEK 🇸🇪 | 11.0805 | 9.40 | +17.9 % | ↓ Unfavourable | ✓✓ ECB |
| EUR / NOK 🇳🇴 | 10.8645 | 8.90 | +22.1 % | ↓↓ Very Unfavourable | ✓✓ ECB |
EUR/AED source XE (mid-market — USD peg ×3.6725). Averages since 2000: ECB/BIS historical references. Signal: favourable = the foreign buyer needs less of their home currency than the historical average to purchase a property in euros. ECB official rates 24/08/2026.
The French 10-year OAT has crossed 4 % for the first time since mid-2024, driven by the June ECB hike, Iran-linked energy pressure and French budget uncertainty (Fitch review 28/08). Current mortgage rates (~3.35 % over 20 years) remain comfortably below the usury cap (5.29 % APR including insurance and fees), but the margin is narrowing. If the ECB raises by +25 bp on 11 September, upward rate adjustments should be expected in October.
The French 10-year OAT yield crossed 4 % in July 2026 for the first time since June 2024, reaching 4.07 % on 24 August. This move of +70 bp since January 2026 is driven by three combined factors: the Iran-linked energy shock, the June ECB hike, and persistent concerns over France's fiscal trajectory (public debt >115 % of GDP). The OAT/Bund spread has widened to ~80 bp. The Fitch rating review on 28 August 2026 warrants close attention: any change in outlook could push long-term rates further.
On 24 August 2026, the Trump administration unveiled a global sanctions plan aimed at cutting Iran off from its economic resources, dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast". Brent reacted at $92.20/bbl (−2.32 %) — lower on the day but still +34 % year-on-year. The Strait of Hormuz remains open but under surveillance. This energy tension is the direct trigger for the ECB's hawkish pivot in June.
After eight consecutive cuts between September 2023 and May 2026 (from 4.00 % to 2.00 %), the ECB raised rates by +25 bp on 11 June 2026, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25 %. At the 23 July meeting, rates were held unchanged. Markets now price in at least one further hike on 11 September, with a terminal rate of ~3.00 % expected by Q1 2027 (Nomura, Goldman Sachs). The Euribor 12M moving back above 3 % confirms this broad repricing across the curve.
| 28 Aug. 2026 | Fitch rating review — France (fiscal outlook) |
| 4 Sept. 2026 | Eurozone August inflation — Eurostat flash estimate |
| 11 Sept. 2026 | ECB Governing Council — +25 bp hike likely (2.25 % → 2.50 %) |
| 17 Sept. 2026 | FOMC meeting — US Federal Reserve |
| 1 Oct. 2026 | Taux d’usure Q4 2026 (Banque de France) — publication |
| Autumn 2026 | Property sales season — watch volumes & price adjustments |
| OAT 10Y | 4.07 % | aft.gouv.fr (official) — 24/08 | ✓✓ |
| Bund 10Y | ~3.27 % | Bundesbank / Investing.com — 24/08 | ✓✓ |
| ECB (in effect) | 2.25 % | ecb.europa.eu — decision 11/06/2026 | ✓✓ |
| Euribor 3M / 12M | 2.524 % / 3.003 % | euribor-rates.eu — 21/08 | ✓✓ |
| EUR/USD · GBP · CHF · SEK · NOK · PLN | see table | ECB reference rates — 24/08 | ✓✓ |
| EUR/AED | 4.2837 | XE mid-market (USD peg ×3.6725) — 24/08 | ✓ |
| CAC 40 · DAX · Brent | 8 453 · 26 100 · 92.20 | Market close — 24/08 | ✓ |
| Usury rate Q3 2026 | 5.29 % (≥20Y) | Banque de France — official (banque-france.fr) | ✓✓ |
| Market mortgage rate | 3.35 % (20Y) | Terralyse / VousFinancer — August 2026 | ✓ |